The story of opinion polls

Election results boost opinion polls’ reputation

Opinion.jpg

Unlike what happened recently in the United Kingdom’s referendum om membership of the European Union – the so-called Brexit ­– with this last Wednesday’s municipal elections, local polls got it as close to 'spot on' as can be.

And, in as much as some observers regarded the election also as a “Zexit” vote on President Jacob Zuma – as we report elsewhere – all signs are there that indeed the results will mean the end of the road for Mr Zuma.

But how close did the final polls before the voting started come to predicting the result.

Firstly, in terms of voter turnout the prediction by the final Ipsos poll on 1 August, was that we will have a repeat of the 2011 figure of 57,6%. The final turnout was 58.58%

Secondly, as far as the total support for political parties is concerned, and compared to the results of the previous election, the picture looks as follows :

                        Predicted      Actual result      2014 General election

ANC                    54%               53.91%                    62.15%

DA                       24.08%         26.89%                    22.23%

IFP                        3.56%            4.25%                      2.4%

EFF                      8%                  8.2%                        6.35%

COPE                   1%                  0.44%                      0.67%

ACDP                   1%                  0.42%                       0.57%

FF+                       1%                  0.77%                      0.9%

Other                    2%                  5.03%                                 

 General facts about the election:

  • 26 333 353 – Registered voters
  • 177 000 – Election officials trained
  • 153 000 – Ballot boxes
  • 133 000 – Voting booths
  • 63 654 – Candidates (18% more than 2011)
  • 22 612 – Voting stations

·         204 – Parties contesting elections (68% more than 2011)

  • 75 – Voter turnout percentage for 2011 municipal elections

How it played out in the provinces

We next take a look at the picture of the seven biggest capturers of support in each of the nine provinces, excluding the total of independent candidates elected nationally:

Eastern Cape

Party     Councils controlled    Seats won   Overall support

ANC               31                          995                 65.31%

DA                   2                           211                 19.7%

EFF                 0                             73                   5.18%

UDM                0                             55                   3.18%

AIC                  0                             17                    1.33%

SCA                 0                              8                     0.46%

COPE              0                              6                     0.5%

Free State

ANC             19                              385                       61.53%

DA                 0                                119                       20.38%

EFF               0                                  63                        9.69%

VF+                0                                  13                        1.97%

COPE            0                                    4                         0.81%

DPA               0                                    4                         0.68%

UFC               0                                    4                         0.46%

Gauteng

ANC              4                                   499                     45.8%

DA                 1                                   375                     37.21%

EFF               0                                   122                     11.38%

VF+                0                                     15                       1.16%

AIC                0                                     12                       1.12%

IFP                 0                                     10                       0.96%

COPE             0                                      4                         0.26%

KwaZulu-Natal

ANC           31                                     995                       57.48%

IFP               6                                      419                       18.39%

DA               0                                     184                       15.16%

EFF             0                                      59                          3.46%

AOC            0                                      14                          0.93%

AL Jama-ha 0                                      6                          0.19%

Mpumalanga

ANC           17                                    561                       70.74%

DA               0                                     110                       12.93%

EFF             0                                      79                          9.39%

BRA             0                                      15                          2.25%

FV+              0                                        7                          0.98%

COPE          0                                        6                          0.74%

Civic Voice  0                                        3                          0.28%          

Northern Cape

ANC          23                                    227                         58.26%

DA              0                                     98                         24.26%

EFF            0                                     34                           8.6%

COPE         0                                      8                             2.54%

STC            0                                      3                             0.69%

VF+              0                                          2                               1.42%

Die Forum  0                                      2                              0.51%

Limpopo

ANC          20                                    784                            68.75%

EFF            0                                    190                           16.75%

DA              0                                      93                             8.06%

COPE       0                                         10                               0.75%

VF+           0                                           6                               0.54%

APC          0                                           3                               0.46%

ACDP       0                                           3                               0.43%

North West

ANC       17                                         494                                59.38%

EFF         0                                          120                                15.52%

DA           0                                          118                                 15.01

F4SD       0                                            26                                   3.1%

FV+          0                                            16                                   1.83%

COPE      0                                              6                                   0.72%

UCDP      0                                              6                                   0.71%

Western Cape

DA          17                                           468                                 63.33%

ICOSA     0                                              11                                   0.76%

ANC        0                                            223                                  26.22%

EFF         0                                             21                                     2.81%

ACDP      0                                              8                                      1.08%

FV+          0                                              6                                       0.7%

COPE      0                                              4                                       0.21%

by Piet Coetzer

Follow us on Twitter | Like us on Facebook
M1
comments powered by Disqus

Subscribe to the newsletter



Final Word

Final Word

IntelligenceBul Final Word Confusing world of sluts, gays and lesbians https://t.co/qCz4oEd22o 8 months - reply - retweet - favorite

IntelligenceBul Let's Think Will Zuma admit that he is a “shady man”? https://t.co/sKBi6kL5lf 8 months - reply - retweet - favorite

IntelligenceBul Propery & Wealth Home-grown financial solution for a truly South African dilemma https://t.co/1XFQO45fNJ 8 months - reply - retweet - favorite